Ngo-10:00 ngesikhathi saseBeijing, uMongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin uthe usenqume ukwenza umkhankaso wezempi okhethekile esifundeni saseDonbas empumalanga ye-Ukraine.Ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho, kwezwakala ukuqhuma endaweni yase-Boryspil Airport e-Kiev, inhloko-dolobha yase-Ukraine, e-Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkov, Kramatorsk naseBerdyansk, okuphawula amazwe aseRussia naseYurophu esifundeni saseYurophu.Ukungqubuzana phakathi kwala mazwe womabili kukhule ngendlela ehlanganisa yonke indawo.I-Ukraine yonke isesimweni sempi.
Kusukela ngesikhathi sokushicilela, intengo ye-TTF yegesi yemvelo yase-Europe ikhuphuke yafinyelela kuma-euro angu-114 i-MWh ngayinye.Hlobo luni lwezinguquko ezijulile ukuvela kwesigameko saseRussia-Ukraine okuzoletha ebhizinisini lamandla ahlanzekile ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe, futhi kuzothinta kanjani ijubane lokushintsha amandla endabuko ezimbonini zamandla e-photovoltaic nezomoya?Njengamanje, kulindeleke ukuthi amanani entengo yezinto ezibonakalayo zeminye imikhiqizo ye-photovoltaic azokhuphuka, futhi isidingo somoya nelanga eYurophu nakwezinye izindawo sizokhula ngokuqhubekayo.
Izintengo ezikhethekile zegesi zingase zikhuphuke, umthamo wokuthutha uqinile futhi amanani ahlala ephezulu
Eqinisweni, i-Ukraine iwumthombo wamagesi akhethekile wokukhiqiza i-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke, ngakho-ke ngemuva kwalokhu kungqubuzana kuzothinta ukushoda kwamanye amagesi akhethekile kagesi asetshenziswa kuma-semiconductors.Imikhiqizo ye-Semiconductor nayo iyizinto ezibalulekile zokusetshenziswa kwemikhiqizo yokukhiqiza ye-photovoltaic njengama-inverters.Ingabe kuzoba nochungechunge lokusabela esikhathini esizayo?
I-Ukraine inengxenye ephezulu yezimakethe ze-neon, i-xenon, negesi ye-krypton, futhi ukungqubuzana kuzokwenza izikhungo ezikhethekile zokukhiqiza igesi zingasebenzi noma zilimale.
Abakhiqizi abaningana be-semiconductor bathi ngenxa yokuthi amagesi akhethekile atholakala emazweni amaningi, kuhlanganise ne-Ukraine, akukho ukushoda kwemikhiqizo esikhathini esifushane.Isikhulu esiphezulu sakwaMicron uMelotta uthe engxoxweni ekhethekile abe nayo neBloomberg News ukuthi ingxenye yegesi esezingeni eliphezulu iqhamuka e-Ukraine, kepha sekulungiswe iqoqo elikhulu, futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, inkampani inemithombo eminingi yokuhlinzeka, okubandakanya i-United States, i-European Union kanye E-Asia.Ukholwa wukuthi inkampani isaqhubeka nokusiqapha ngokucophelela isimo futhi uthemba ukuthi sizodamba.I-SK Hynix iphinde yaveza ukuthi ivikele inqwaba yamagesi angenayo, ngakho asikho isidingo sokukhathazeka kakhulu.Kodwa nakuba isidingo singalingana nokuhlinzekwa, akunakugwenywa ukuthi amanye amagesi amahle azobona ukukhuphuka kwentengo.Intengo ye-neon, umkhiqizo, yenyuka ngemva kwengxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine ngo-2014, lapho inani lalingu-$3,500 nge-cubic meter ngayinye, izikhathi ezingaphezu kwezingu-10 kunangaphambili.
Ngokukhula kodweshu phakathi kwala mazwe womabili, intengo yegolide inyuke kakhulu.Impahla eyinhloko yemikhiqizo yokunamathisela esiliva evamile esetshenziswa kumandla elanga iyimpushana eyisiliva, exhunyaniswe nenani lesiliva laseLondon.Azikho izindaba zokukhuphuka okubanzi kwezintengo zesiliva okwamanje.Ngakho-ke, esikhathini esifushane, akukho uphawu lwentengo yokunamathisela yesiliva ekhuphukayo.
Isigameko saseRussia-Ukraine sizoba namuphi umphumela ekuthuthweni kwamabhokisi, ikakhulukazi emikhiqizweni emisha yamandla?
Ngokusho kwezingqapheli zakwa-Fang, amanani okuthutha olwandle azohlala ephezulu.Eminyakeni emibili edlule, intengo ikhuphuke izikhathi ezi-4, 5 noma ngisho nangaphezulu.Ukwenyuka kwamanani kawoyela kwakamuva kungase kuthinte ukukhuphuka kwentengo kadizili, impahla eluhlaza yokuthutha amabhokisi, kodwa ngisho noma umnikazi womkhumbi enyusa intengo kulokhu, ngeke kuphazamise intengo yomkhumbi ekhona.I-boost ngeke ibe ngesilinganiso esikhulu.Kodwa-ke, inkomba yentengo yokuthunyelwa kweziqukathi ngeke yehle esikhathini esifushane, umthamo wawo wonke wokuthumela uzoqhubeka nokuqiniswa, futhi uchungechunge lokuthunyelwa kwamabhokisi luzoba sesimweni esiqinile.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngenxa yohlobo oluguquguqukayo lwe-Omicron, ubhubhane emazweni amaningi aseYurophu lwaqhubeka nokusabalala, futhi ukunqwabelana kwamacala asanda kutholwa kwagcina isimo sokuthekelisa sisezingeni eliphezulu, futhi imakethe yokuthunyelwa kwemikhumbi yayiyinhle kakhulu.Ukusabela engcupheni yezimpi zasendaweni, iYurophu ingase ikhulise ukuqoqwa kwezinto zokwakha, ngaleyo ndlela iqhubekisele phambili isidingo esiphelele samamayela we-ton-nautical ukwanda.Sekukonke, umthamo weziqukathi uzoshoda kakhulu, futhi amathuba okudilika kwamanani olwandle awekho phezulu, futhi maningi amathuba okuba kugcinwe isimo esikhona noma sikhuphuke kancane.
Amandla omoya we-Photovoltaic, njll., uguquko lwamandla avuselelekayo emhlabeni wonke luyakhula ngesivinini
Ukuqala kwalo mzuliswano wempi yasendaweni phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine kuzoba nomthelela omuhle ekusheshisweni kwamandla amasha esikhundleni samandla endabuko.Usuku lonke namuhla, izitoko ezintsha zamandla zibonise ukwanda.I-Zhongli Group, i-Sungrow, i-Trina Solar, i-Risen Energy, i-Foster, i-JinkoSolar, i-JA Technology, i-LONGi, i-GoodWe, i-Chint Electric, i-Zhonghuan, ne-Jolywood zonke ziphakame ekupheleni.I-PV 50ETF izuze u-1.53%.
Intengo yegesi yemvelo inyukile muva nje.Lezi akuzona izindaba ezinhle esifundeni saseYurophu, lapho amanani egesi yemvelo akhuphuke cishe ngokuphindwe kane onyakeni odlule.Njengamanje, ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yegesi yemvelo eYurophu ivela kugesi yemvelo, futhi i-geopolitics iye yakhulisa inkinga yokuhlinzeka futhi.Kusukela ngo-4 ntambama namuhla, izintengo ze-Dutch TTF zebhentshimakhi yegesi yemvelo yesikhathi esizayo zikhuphuke ngeseshini yesine ilandelana, ikhuphuke cishe ngo-41% ngosuku olulodwa.UMengameli waseMelika uJoe Biden naye uthe uzothatha ezinye izinyathelo zokujezisa iRussia.Noma yikuphi unswinyo oluvimbela ukufinyelela kweRussia emalini yangaphandle kungakhuphula uwoyela, igesi kanye nezimakethe zezimpahla ezifana nezinsimbi nezitshalo.
Ukuncika kwegesi yemvelo yendawo eYurophu kuphezulu kakhulu, kufinyelela ku-90%.Ngakho-ke, kulo mzuzu lapho intengo yegesi yemvelo ikhuphuka, abasebenzisi abaningi bezimboni, amandla kanye nokushisa abajwayele ukusebenzisa igesi yemvelo bazofuna izindlela eziphephile zokuxazulula izidingo zabo.Ukushintshwa kwemithombo yamandla emisha njengamandla elanga kuzosheshiswa.
U-Wood Mackenzie uveze ukuthi ngenxa yokwanda kokuphuma kwamandla aguquguqukayo, iYurophu inezinketho ezine zokulinganisa ukusebenza kwegridi: i-hydro pumped, izitshalo zamandla eziphakeme zegesi yemvelo.U-Rory McCarthy, umhlaziyi oyinhloko wale nhlangano, uthe, “Ezimisweni zikagesi zesimanje, izimboni zegesi yemvelo zingakwazi ukukhiqiza ugesi ophelele ngemizuzu emibili, futhi zingasebenza ngengxenye yomthwalo ngokusebenza kahle okwandisiwe futhi zinganikeza amandla isikhathi esingenamkhawulo sokukhiqiza.Isisekelo siwukuhlinzekwa kwegesi yemvelo okungaphazanyiswa.”
Kodwa ngo-2030, ukugcinwa kwamandla ebhethri kuzodlula iziqongo zegesi yemvelo njengenketho eshibhe kakhulu yokulinganisa igridi yaseYurophu.Umthamo wokugcina amandla kuzo zonke izinhlaka zase-Europe kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule usuka ku-3GW yamanje (ngaphandle kwe-hydro pumped) uye ku-26GW ngo-2030 kanye no-89GW ngo-2040. UMcCarthy waphawula ukuthi ngo-2040, iYurophu ingase ibe no-320GWh womthamo wokugcina amandla otholakalayo ukuze kulinganiswe uhlelo lukagesi. .Iningi lazo lizovela kumasistimu okugcina amandla ebhethri ohlangothini lomsebenzisi.“Izindleko zokuphehla amandla kagesi namalahle nazo zizokhuphuka, futhi izinqubomgomo zokukhishwa kwe-net-zero ekugcineni zizogxila ekususweni kwe-carbonisation yazo zonke izinsiza zemakethe kagesi,” kusho uMcCarthy.
Inkampani yomhlaziyi i-Bloomberg New Energy Finance yake yakhipha umbiko wocwaningo, owaveza ukuthi: E-United States, njengoba izikhungo zokuphehla ugesi welanga ziqhubeka nokusabalala futhi zidla isikhathi sokusebenza kwesizinda samandla egesi yemvelo, kudingeka izimboni zamandla egesi yemvelo ziqale kabusha futhi vala kaningi.Lokhu kwandisa izindleko zabo zokusebenza ngenxa yezidingo zikaphethiloli nokuguga.
Njengamanje, lapho intengo yegesi yemvelo iphezulu kakhulu, abatshalizimali bazohlakanipha kakhulu ekunqumeni ukuthi bazoyishintsha yini indlela entsha yokuphehla ugesi ukuze kugwenywe inkinga yale mali eluhlaza enenani eliphezulu.
Yebo, abathumeli begesi yemvelo kwamanye amazwe abafuni ukubona lesi simo siqhubeka.Bazothola nezindlela zokwenza amanani egesi abe ngaphezulu ngendlela ehlekisayo, ngaphandle kwalokho ukuthumela igesi yemvelo kwamanye amazwe kuzoba yinkinga uma isimo sokushiywa kwezimboni kanye nokulahlwa kukagesi senziwe.
Uma kuqhathaniswa nesigaba sokuqala sokungqubuzana kweRussia-Ukraine ngo-2014 (Januwari 19, 2014 kuya ku-March 20, 2014), ekusebenzeni kwezigaba ezinkulu zempahla, amanani entengo akhuphuke kakhulu, aze afike ku-7.6%.Intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe inyuke ngo-4.2%, futhi intengo yegolide yenyuka ngo-6.1% (kusuka e-Haitong Securities.) Intengo ephezulu eqhubekayo kawoyela ongahluziwe izophinde yenze ukusetshenziswa kwezimoto zikagesi, izimoto ezihlanzekile, njll. kubaluleke kakhulu.
Mayelana nokuthuthukiswa kwekusasa kwamandla amasha, ikakhulukazi imboni ye-photovoltaic, kulo nyaka izoqhubeka nokuthuthuka.Ngomhla zingama-23 kuNhlolanja, izinhlangothi ezifanele zabikezela ukuthi umthamo we-photovoltaic osanda kufakwa ngo-2022 ungase ukhuphuke ube ngaphezu kuka-75GW, okungaba ngu-75-90GW.Leli nani liqhathaniswa nedatha ye-National Energy Administration - amandla e-photovoltaic asanda kufakwa yezwe ngo-2021 azoba mayelana ne-55GW, ukukhuphuka konyaka ngo-36% -64%.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, kulinganiselwa ukuthi kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2025, umthamo omusha wezwe wami we-photovoltaic ofakiwe uzofinyelela ku-83-99GW.Ngokusho kwedatha evela eMnyangweni Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi, ngo-2021, ukukhiqizwa kwezwe lami kwe-photovoltaic kwe-polysilicon, ama-silicon wafers, amaseli, namamojula kuzofinyelela kumathani angama-505,000, 227GW, 198GW, kanye no-182GW, ngokulandelana, akhuphuke ngo-27.5%, 40.6%, 46.9%, kanye no-46.1% unyaka nonyaka.Ukuthunyelwa kwaminyaka yonke kwemikhiqizo ye-photovoltaic kudlule ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-28.4.
Ngokombiko wakamuva wocwaningo lwe-CITIC Construction Investment, umthamo wasekhaya ofakiwe we-photovoltaic ngoJanuwari 2022 udlule obekulindelwe, futhi umthamo omusha we-photovoltaic ofakwe ezweni udlule i-7GW, ukukhuphuka konyaka ngonyaka ngama-200%.Phakathi kwazo, umthamo osanda kufakwa we-photovoltaics esabalalisiwe wawungu-4.5GW, ukwanda konyaka ngonyaka we-250%;amandla asanda kufakwa e-centralized photovoltaics ayengu-2.5GW, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-150%.Izinto ze-silicon ezikhuphukayo, amawafa e-silicon, amabhethri angezansi komfula, amamojula, kanye nama-inverter nezinto ezisizayo, zonke izixhumanisi zochungechunge lwezimboni ngokuvamile zigcwele ama-oda, futhi izinga lokusebenza alehli kodwa liyakhuphuka.Isizini yendabuko yalo nyaka ingase “ingabi buthaka”.
Ukubhala lokhu, sithemba ukuthi abantu base-Ukraine bangazivikela bona nemindeni yabo, basebenzise lesi sikhathi esikhethekile ngokuphepha, futhi babuyele noma bathole ikhaya elinokuthula ngokushesha ngangokunokwenzeka.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Mar-12-2022